Pare | Closed | % change |
EUR/USD | $1,1916 | +0,54% |
GBP/USD | $1,3516 | -0,22% |
USD/CHF | Chf1,00246 | -0,23% |
USD/JPY | Y109,41 | -0,28% |
EUR/JPY | Y130,37 | +0,26% |
GBP/JPY | Y147,883 | -0,50% |
AUD/USD | $0,7532 | +0,95% |
NZD/USD | $0,6964 | +0,35% |
USD/CAD | C$1,27661 | -0,68% |
Time | Region | Event | Period | Previous | Forecast |
01:30 | New Zealand | Business NZ PMI | April | 52.2 | |
01:45 | New Zealand | Food Prices Index, y/y | April | 1.4% | |
04:30 | Australia | Home Loans | March | -0.2% | -2% |
15:30 | Canada | Employment | April | 32.3 | 17.4 |
15:30 | Canada | Unemployment rate | April | 5.8% | 5.8% |
15:30 | USA | Import Price Index | April | 0% | 0.5% |
15:30 | USA | FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks | | | |
16:10 | Canada | Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks | | | |
16:15 | Eurozone | ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks | | | |
17:00 | USA | Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | May | 98.8 | 98.5 |
20:00 | USA | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | May | 834 |
The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.2 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The indexes for gasoline and shelter were the largest factors in the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index, although the food index increased as well.
The gasoline index increased 3.0 percent, more than offsetting declines in other energy component indexes and led to a 1.4-percent rise in the energy index. The food index rose 0.3 percent, with the food at home index rising 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home increasing 0.2 percent.
UK economy has not fulfilled those conditions for a rate increase since feb
Key question is whether softness will prove temporary or persistent
UK exporters remain in a sweet spot
Overall economic climate in UK looks little changed thus far
Inflation in two years' time at 2.03 pct (feb forecast 2.16 pct), based on market interest rates
Inflation in one year's time at 2.13 pct (feb forecast 2.28 pct), based on market interest rates
Current market rate path implies around three 25 basis point rate hikes over next three years (similar to feb path)
Says ongoing tightening of monetary policy over forecast period is "appropriate" to return inflation to target over conventional horizon
McCafferty and Aaunders say q1 gdp weakness "temporary or erratic", rate rise now could mitigate risks of more abrupt change in interest rates
Most MPC members want to wait to see how data unfold "over the coming months" before raising rates, as cost of waiting low
"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 9 May 2018, the MPC voted by a majority of 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion".
Industrial, construction data likely to have negligible impact on Q1 GDP estimate
The UK total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £0.7 billion to £6.9 billion in the three months to March 2018, due mainly to falling goods imports from non-EU countries.
The trade in goods deficit narrowed £1.5 billion with non-EU countries and widened £0.4 billion with the EU in the three months to March 2018.
The narrowing goods deficit with non-EU countries was due mainly to falls in imports of machinery and transport equipment (mainly ships and aircraft), and miscellaneous manufactures (mainly clothing and works of art) of £1.3 billion and £0.5 billion respectively in the three months to March 2018.
In the three months to March 2018, the Index of Production increased by 0.6% compared with the three months to December 2017, due mainly to a rise of 2.5% in energy supply; this was supported by rises in mining and quarrying of 2.2% and manufacturing of 0.2%.
The three-monthly rise in manufacturing is due mainly to rises in machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (4.1%), transport equipment (1.7%) and computer, electronic and optical equipment (4.4%).
In the three months to March 2018 growth has fallen due mainly to a reduction in the growth rate of both export and domestic turnover, and a slow-down in basic metals and metal products due to a high growth in the three months to December 2017.
In March 2018, total production was estimated to have increased by 0.1% compared with February 2018.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2019 (1753)
$1.1969 (374)
$1.1937 (218)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1869
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1802 (3729)
$1.1775 (2833)
$1.1743 (2803)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 8 is 147523 contracts (according to data from May, 9) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (8767);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3740 (1331)
$1.3688 (610)
$1.3649 (779)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3574
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3488 (1254)
$1.3440 (1495)
$1.3411 (2398)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 8 is 37333 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (2304);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 8 is 39511 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2398);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 9.
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Not thinking of conducting another comprehensive review of BoJ's policy
See no problem arising from BoJ's risky-asset buying
If conditions fall into place, BoJ's policy board could discuss conditions for exiting easy policy
If inflation approaches 2 pct, conditions will gradually fall in place to mull exit from easy policy
Don't think BoJ's current policy is nearing a limit
China's consumer price inflation eased to a three-month low in April on weak food price growth, while producer price inflation increased for the first time in seven months on commodity prices, according to rttnews.
Inflation eased to 1.8 percent in April from 2.1 percent in March. This was the lowest since January, when the rate was 1.5 percent and below the expected level of 1.9 percent.
The government targets around 3 percent inflation for 2018.
Food price inflation decreased to 0.7 percent from 2.1 percent, while non-food price inflation held steady at 2.1 percent in April.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.2 percent following March's 1.1 percent decrease. Prices have declined for the second straight month.
"Door is open to both a rate cut and a rate rise"
Decision was unanimous across monetary policy committee group
Inflation "is a concern and that's why we're keeping monetary policy expansionary"
Tail off in house prices is a "positive thing" for financial stability concerns; has not yet gone far enough
Will make changes at RBNZ as governor, including greater communication
"Personally I'm surprised how low business confidence is" in NZ
CPI remains below 2 pct
Sees official cash rate at 1.9 pct in september 2019 (pvs 1.9 pct)
Cash rate at 2.4 pct in june 2021
Have seen an unprecedented increase in employment
Expect to keep OCR at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time
Immigration adding to the supply of labour
The direction of our next move is equally balanced, up or down
Global inflation pressures are expected to rise but remain contained
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