Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 08-04-2019.

• We want agreement with Labour as soon as possible
• PM will speak to Tusk shortly

• Ready to make political declaration clearer, work can be done extremely quickly

Ken Reid, Political Editor at UTV, tweted: "The Conservative-Labour talks likely to resume later. But latest communication from the Government has brought a lukewarm response from Labour side. Seems any agreement before Brussels summit is unlikely."

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Monday that the value of new factory orders fell 0.5 percent m-o-m in February, following a revised flat m-o-m reading in in January. 

Economists had forecast a 0.6 percent m-o-m decline. 

According to the report, orders for machinery fell 0.6 percent after advancing 2.1 percent in the prior month, while orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components increased 1.0 percent after increasing 1.1 percent in January. At the same time, computers and electronic products orders decreased 0.5 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in January.

Total factory orders excluding transportation, a volatile part of the overall reading, fell 4.5 percent m-o-m in February (compared to a 0.4 percent m-o-m drop in January), while orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of business spending plans, edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m (compared to a 0.9 percent m-o-m gain in January). The report also showed that shipments of core capital goods also slipped 0.1 percent m-o-m in February, following an increase of 1.0 percent m-o-m in January.

In y-o-y terms, factory orders increased 2.4 percent in February.

Statistics Canada reported that the value of building permits issued by the Canadian municipalities fell 5.7 percent m-o-m in February, following a revised 6.0 percent m-o-m drop in January (originally a 5.5 percent m-o-m decrease). 

Economists had forecast a 1.3 percent advance in February from the previous month. 

According to the report, the value of residential permits plunged by 8.5 percent m-o-m as permits multi-family dwellings tumbled by 16.4 percent m-o-m, while single-family permits rose by 4.0 percent m-o-m.

Meanwhile, non-residential building permits fell by 0.5 percent m-o-m in February, hurt by lower values of commercial permits (-6.4 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, increases were reported for both the industrial (+5.2 percent m-o-m) and institutional (+11.6 percent m-o-m) components.

In y-o-y terms, building permits declined 6.8 percent in February.

The Canada Mortgage And Housing Corp. (CMHC) reported on Monday the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was at 192,527 units in March, up 158 percent from downwardly revised 166,290 units in February (originally 173,153 units). 

Economists had forecast an annual pace of 193,000 for March. 

According to the report, urban starts surged by 17.6 percent m-o-m last month to 178,033 units, as multiple urban starts climbed by 18.6 percent m-o-m to 135,894 units, while single-detached urban starts jumped by 12.1 percent m-o-m, to 42,139 units. At the same time, rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14,494 units.

According to BBC, the vote called upon to take place on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT, before the start of the European Council meeting in Brussels, should it be approved that is.

Reuters reported the ECB presentation revealed on Monday that one euro zone bank is falling short of the European Central Bank’s capital requirements for 2019. This means it will face restrictions on how much it can pay out to investors and executives.

The ECB did not name any of the banks in its annual presentation on the standing of the euro zone’s top lenders, which showed a slight increase in capital demands from the year before as EU “buffers” introduced in the wake of the financial crisis are phased in.

These requirements are closely watched by analysts as any bank that fails to meet them faces a cap on how much it can pay in dividends, bonuses and certain coupons and comes under pressure to raise capital.

According to the ECB’s presentation, most of the 119 banks under ECB supervision had way more Core Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital than demanded by supervisors. Four barely made their required level and just one fell short.

Analysts at Danske Bank expect the U.S.-China trade deal to come in the second half of the year and to be extensive.

• “We look for a deal, among other things, to roll back tariffs to a large degree. Meanwhile, we see a 15% risk Donald Trump will attack the car industry in a next step.”
• “A trade deal would support a recovery in China and emerging markets and stabilise eurozone growth at a time when past monetary easing also starts to support.”
• “In equities, a trade deal is largely priced in, leaving risks largely balanced if not slightly on the downside, given the negative 'reality gap' at present.”
• “In FX markets, we expect a trade deal to support commodity currencies versus notably JPY; EUR/USD support in 3-6M but muted to negative initial reaction.”

• Government aiming for more Brexit talks with Labour party today
• Aims for more formal discussions with Labour party
• Confirms May will meet with Merkel and Macron tomorrow
• Important to set out rationale for extension request ahead of Wednesday's summit

According to the reports, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet with the UK PM Theresa May on Brexit at 11:00 GMT on Tuesday in Berlin.

The French President Emmanuel Macron is also likely to meet with May on Brexit in Paris tomorrow.

Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, senior analyst at Danske Bank, points out that the EUR/GBP cross has traded in the 0.85-0.87 range for some time now and they expect it will continue to do so until we get some clarification over the coming days.

“Our base case with a long extension would probably be slightly GBP-positive and we could see EUR/GBP trade in the 0.84-0.86 range. In the event of a no deal Brexit, we still expect EUR/GBP to move towards parity. We continue to expect EUR/GBP to move down to 0.83 if the Withdrawal Agreement passes.”

Germany’s bank lobby group BdB has urged the European Central Bank to lower the charge that banks pay on some of their excess cash by introducing a tiered deposit rate.

“If the ECB is unable to end the era of negative interest rates this year, then it should at least take the central banks in Switzerland and Japan as a model,” said BdB president Hans-Walter Peters.

Interest rates in Japan and Switzerland are also negative, but banks are exempted from paying the central banks for parking cash up to a certain volume. “The allowance must come now,” Peters said.

Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, senior analyst at Danske Bank, points out that the US jobs report on Friday failed to move EUR/USD despite a weak wage growth figure initially sending the pair higher.

“As for this week’s potential movers, we stress the following: signals of rate cuts or QE needed at Wednesday’s ECB meeting (which we do not expect) to move EUR/USD lower, hence, EUR/USD should remain steady around the ECB meeting; further progress in US-China trade talks would be EUR/USD-positive; and finally, a long extension of Brexit is unlikely to be significant for EUR/USD.”

According to the report from Sentix, the economy in the euro zone continued to stabilize at the beginning of April. The sentix overall economic index rises to -0.3 (highest value since November 2018) after -2.2 points in the previous month.

The sentix economic index for the situation in the euro zone dropped to only 3.8 points in April. This is, after all, the eighth consecutive decline. On the other hand, expectations are rising by 6 points to -4.3, the third time in a row. This means that the economy is still losing momentum, but the momentum is declining.

Germany is currently one of the regions with the weakest economic momentum. The further collapse of the situation values from 20.0 to 10.5 points, the lowest level since April 2010, is worrying. In January 2018 the value was still 72.25! Expectations are rising for the third time in a row but are still negative at -6 points.

Bank of England published latest quarterly survey of public attitudes to inflation, undertaken between 8 and 9 February 2019.

• Asked to give the current rate of inflation, respondents gave a median answer of 2.9%, compared to 3.1% in November.

• Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 3.2%, remaining the same as in November.

• Asked about expected inflation in the twelve months after that, respondents gave a median answer of 2.9%, up from 2.8% in November.

• Asked about expectations of inflation in the longer term, say in five years’ time, respondents gave a median answer of 3.4%, down from 3.5% in November.

• When asked about the future path of interest rates, 22% said rates might stay about the same over the next twelve months, compared with 19% in November. 47% of respondents expected rates to rise over the next 12 months, down from 53% in November.

China will relax residency curbs in many of its smaller cities this year and increase infrastructure spending, the state planner said, in a fresh push to boost the urban population and revive slowing economic growth.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said it aims to increase China's urbanisation rate by at least 1% by the end of this year.

The latest push is part of its longer-term goal of bringing 100 million people into the cities over the five years to 2020. In 2018, 59.6% of China's population lived in urban areas.

"This will provide strong support for maintaining sustained and healthy economic development and overall social stability," the NDRC said.

Danske Bank analysts suggest that we have another important week on Brexit coming up with the EU Summit on Wednesday, ahead of the Brexit deadline on Friday.

“Today, the only scheduled data release of interest is the Euro Sentix survey for April. It increased for the first time in six months in March. Focus this week will also be on the ECB meeting on Wednesday, US inflation, Chinese exports and US-China trade talks. We are unlikely to get new signals from the ECB at the meeting on Wednesday. The US-China trade talks continue this week, with Trump's economic advisor Kudlow saying the sides are moving "closer and closer" to a deal”

European Tax Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said he was convinced Britain would not crash out of the EU on April 12 without a divorce deal, though Prime Minister Theresa May must first persuade leaders a delay would be useful.

“The British parliament doesn’t want no-deal. We don’t want it, it’s the worst outcome for the economy, Moscovici told Franceinfo radio in an interview. “Of course, we’re ready for it if it happens.”

The Bank of Japan cut its assessment for three of the country's nine regions, the biggest number of downgrades in six years.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the economy was expected to continue expanding moderately with robust domestic demand offsetting some of the weaknesses in exports.

But the central bank warned that weakening global growth and simmering Sino-U.S. trade tensions were taking a toll on some Japanese regions reliant on overseas demand.

"We have had to cut our assessments on exports and output for some regions because we're hearing more complaints about the impact of the global economic slowdown than three months ago," said BOJ.

The report cited several companies that put off investment in new equipment due to uncertainty over the global outlook.

The BOJ raised its assessment for one region, while it maintained its view for five regions.

In the view of the Global Head of Currencies at Standard Chartered, Steven Englander, the risks remain skewed to the downside for the US dollar in the coming months.

"The market really wants to sell dollars, but is afraid to sell dollars right now. Traders watching for signals that US economic growth is slowing or that China and Europe are picking up. US dollar likely to weaken over time as the market waits for that signal. There has to be some upward surprise in potential growth and projections of where corporate profits are heading over the medium term for it to head higher. I don't see where those surprises are coming from."

Edward Morse, the global head of commodities research at Citi Group, gave a bullish outlook for global oil markets, saying that current inventories were at a "constructive" level.

Crude futures have surged in recent months, with Brent and WT both rallying more than 20% since the start of 2019. Morse believes that more upside is in store with supplies being taken off the market in Iran and Venezuela, as well as major oil cartel OPEC.

"I think it's under bought, I think it was oversold ... The market is very constructive, it's fairly tight and we think it's going to be in the $70 range through the second quarter and into the third quarter depending on what happens. And there's a lot of variables between now and then," he told.

One variable is whether the President Donald Trump administration will extend sanctions waivers on eight countries importing Iranian oil and he has until May 2 to decide. Morse believes that the focus for the U.S. will be sanctions and Venezuela and this would likely see "kinder" actions on those importing Iranian oil.

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany exported goods to the value of 108.8 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 90.9 billion euros in February 2019. Destatis also reports that German exports increased by 3.9% and imports by 5.1% in February 2019 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were down 1.3% and imports 1.6% compared with January 2019. The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 17.9 billion euros in February 2019. In February 2018, the surplus amounted to 18.3 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 18.7 billion euros in February 2019.

According to provisional results of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of 16.3 billion euros in February 2019, which takes into account the balances of trade in goods including supplementary trade items (+19.1 billion euros), services (-1.1 billion euros), primary income (+6.2 billion euros) and secondary income (-7.9 billion euros). In February 2018, the German current account showed a surplus of 19.5 billion euros.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1384 (2530)

$1.1354 (2583)

$1.1331 (239)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1229

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1170 (2740)

$1.1131 (2751)

$1.1088 (2139)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 64994 contracts (according to data from April, 5) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (6218);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3364 (2418)

$1.3298 (974)

$1.3244 (836)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3066

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2931 (1062)

$1.2874 (1275)

$1.2808 (1999)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 20378 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2562);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 16993 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (2569);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.83 versus 1.36 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 5

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.