(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1825 -0,33%
GBP/USD $1,3441 -0,28%
USD/CHF Chf0,98725 +0,23%
USD/JPY Y112,58 +0,16%
EUR/JPY Y133,13 -0,17%
GBP/JPY Y151,322 -0,12%
AUD/USD $0,7607 +0,12%
NZD/USD $0,6875 +0,25%
USD/CAD C$1,26895 +0,13%
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III 1.8% 3%
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III 0.8% 0.7%
07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October 1% -0.3%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November 0.7% 0.9%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November 0.1% 0.2%
10:30 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks
13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report November 235 185
13:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter III -0.1%
13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally) Quarter III 1.5% 3.3%
13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Finally) Quarter III 0.3% 0.2%
15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 1% 1%
15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December -3.429 -3.507
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index November 53.2
EUR/USD on 4-hour time frame chart we can see that price is now close to the upside trend line and close to the support level.
Our suggestion is to wait for how 4-hour candlestick closes and if it close above the support level then we might see further bullish movement.
Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 95th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management: "The NMI registered 57.4 percent, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than the October reading of 60.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 61.4 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than the October reading of 62.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 100th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in November. The New Orders Index registered 58.7 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.8 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points in November to 55.3 percent from the October reading of 57.5 percent".
Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world totalled $1.5 billion in October, narrowing from a $3.4 billion deficit in September. Exports were up 2.7% on higher exports to the United States, while imports decreased 1.6% on lower imports of motor vehicles and parts.
Total exports increased 2.7% to $44.5 billion in October, following four consecutive monthly declines. Prices were up 1.5% and volumes increased 1.2%. Advances were observed in 9 of 11 sections, led by basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (+12.4%). There were also notable gains in metal and non-metallic mineral products (+4.5%); farm, fishing and intermediate food products (+7.7%); and energy products (+2.7%). Year over year, total exports were up 0.8%.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.7 billion in October, up $3.8 billion from $44.9 billion in September, revised. October exports were $195.9 billion, down less than $0.1 billion from September exports. October imports were $244.6 billion, $3.8 billion more than September imports.
The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.8 billion to $69.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $20.3 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $49.1 billion, or 11.9 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $97.5 billion or 5.3 percent. Imports increased $146.6 billion or 6.5 percent.
On Daily time frame chart we can see that GBP/USD has broken the consolidation zone.
Therefore, the price may make a slight correction and if it tests the support level then we might see a further appreciation on GBP/USD.
In October 2017 compared with September 2017, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 1.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.5% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In September, the retail trade volume rose by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU28. In October 2017 compared with October 2016, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU28.
November data pointed to a setback for the UK service sector, with business activity growth easing from the six-month peak seen in October. Volumes of new work also increased at a slower pace, while the rate of staff hiring was the joint-slowest since March.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI registered 53.8 in November, down from 55.6 in October, but above the 50.0 no-change value for the sixteenth consecutive month. The latest reading signalled a solid increase in service sector business activity, but the rate of expansion was slightly slower than seen on average in 2017 to date.
The rate of euro area economic expansion moved up a gear in November. Output growth accelerated to the fastest in over six-and-a-half years, while rates of increase for all of the main survey indicators covering demand, employment and inflation also hit multi-year highs.
The final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index posted 57.5 in November, up from 56.0 in October and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. The headline index has signalled expansion in each of the past 53 months.
Germany's service sector saw its slowest rise in business activity for three months in November, but still enjoyed a solid growth performance overall.
The seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index came in at 54.3 in November, down slightly from 54.7 in October (as well as the earlier 'flash' estimate of 54.9) and signalling the slowest pace of growth for three months. Still, the average for the fourth quarter so far remained above that recorded in the three months to September.
EUR/USD: 1.1640(321 m), 1.1660-65(508 m), 1.1900(543 m), 1.1928-30(733 m)
GBP/USD: 1.3350(747 m)
USD/JPY: Y112.00(1.17 b), 113.00(816 m), 114.00(882 m), 114.15(650 m), 115.00(716 m), 116.00(1.18 b)
AUD/USD: 0.7600(787 m), 0.7645(621 m), 0.7800(278 m)
NZD/USD: 0.6825(349 m), 0.6900(300 m)
USD/CAD: 1.2338(300 m), 1.2725-30(573 m), 1.2740(250 m), 1.2765-75(741 m), 1.2790-95(290 m)
The Spanish service sector continued to grow solidly in November, although there were further slowdowns in rates of expansion for business activity and new orders. There were some reports that political uncertainty in Catalonia acted to dampen demand. On a more positive note, the rate of job creation quickened for the second month running. Meanwhile, the rate of input cost inflation reached the highest since March 2011 and output prices rose at a faster pace.
The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 54.4 in November, down from 54.6 in October and signalling the weakest rise in business activity since January
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1964 (4141)
$1.1927 (5811)
$1.1899 (4150)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1862
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1817 (2746)
$1.1785 (3141)
$1.1744 (3880)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 165158 contracts (according to data from December, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (8856);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3549 (2737)
$1.3506 (3690)
$1.3482 (2818)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3409
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3369 (1284)
$1.3331 (1326)
$1.3289 (1945)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 53370 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3690);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 46321 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3958);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.87 versus 0.85 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 4
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Closely watching JGB market, don't see any distortion in market at present
Weak prices due to deflationary mindset, companies' cautious price-setting stance
Won't comment on selection of next BoJ governor
Won't comment on FX levels, daily moves
The seasonally adjusted current account deficit fell $539 million to $9,125 million in the September quarter 2017, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services surplus in the September quarter 2017 was $3,056 million. Exports of goods and services fell $154 million and imports of goods and services rose $222 million. The fall in the net primary income of $1,044 million to $11,968m was the main contributor to the narrowing of the current account deficit in the September quarter 2017.
Australian retail turnover rose 0.5 per cent in October 2017, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.
This follows a 0.1 per cent rise in September 2017.
"In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises across all industries led by cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.7 per cent)," the Director of the Quarterly Economy Wide Survey, Ben James, said.
There were also rises for food retailing (0.3 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.0 per cent), other retailing (0.3 per cent), department stores (0.5 per cent) and household goods retailing (0.1 per cent) in October 2017.
Australia dec 2017 rba cash rate stays flat at 1.5 percent (fcast 1.5 percent) vs prev 1.5 percent
Outlook for household consumption a source of uncertainty
Terms of trade expected to decline going forward but remain at high levels
Says conditions in global economy continuing to improve
Expects gdp growth to average around 3 pct over next few years
Forecast remains for inflation to pick up gradually
The Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) indicated that growth momentum improved slightly in November. Although the Composite Output Index rose from October's 16-month low of 51.0 to 51.6, the latest figure pointed to only a modest upturn in business activity that remained weaker than the series average. Data broken down by sector indicated that business activity growth improved across both the manufacturing and service sectors during November. In the manufacturing sector, the pace of increase picked up from October's four-month low, but remained moderate overall
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