Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 05-10-2017.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $3.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $232.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 6.8 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, led the increase, $3.6 billion or 4.9 percent to $77.4 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, up three of the last four months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $237.2 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent July increase. Machinery, up nine of the last ten months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $31.4 billion.

• Expect U.S. economy to end above 2 pct at the end of the year‍​

• Still penciling in decemeber rate hike

• Pencils in one more rate hike this year, three for next

Exports decreased 1.0% on lower volumes, while imports were unchanged.

Following two months of large decreases, exports were down a further 1.0% to $43.6 billion in August-despite increases in 6 of 11 sections. Exports have fallen 10.6% since the record high posted in May. Volumes decreased 1.9% in August, while prices were up 1.0%. Consumer goods, basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products, as well as metal ores and non-metallic minerals were responsible for the decline in export values. Exports excluding energy products were down 1.4%. Year over year, total exports edged down 0.2%.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce,announced today that the goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in August, down $1.2 billion from $43.6 billion in July, revised. August exports were $195.3 billion, $0.8 billion more than July exports. August imports were $237.7 billion, $0.4 billion less than July imports.

The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $64.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $22.0 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $29.1 billion, or 8.8 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $84.9 billion or 5.8 percent. Imports increased $114.0 billion or 6.4 percent.

In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 272,000. The 4-week moving average was 268,250, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 277,750. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria impacted this week's claims.

• Discussed trade off between size and duration of QE extension

• QE extension talk preliminary

• Praet called for "close monitoring" of the exchange rate

• View was put forth that intensity of accommodation could be scaled back

• Policy should be highly accommodative under all scenarios

• Attention should be paid to market expectations and risk of unwarranted market movements

• Some argued that FX impact was underestimated in projections, creating downside risk

Sales at eurozone retailers increased for the sixth successive month in September. Growth was driven by further solid expansions in France and Germany. The rate of expansion in Italy was far less marked, but in positive territory for the first time in 21 months.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Retail PMI - which tracks the month-on-month changes in retail sales in the bloc‟s biggest three economies combined - rose to 52.3 in September, from 50.8 in August. The latest reading highlighted the thirdstrongest rate of growth in the current six-month period of expansion.

Sales were also up on an annual basis, thereby reversing the downturn that had been observed in each of the previous two months

EUR/USD: 1.1735(305 m), 1.1745-50(344 m)

GBP/USD: 1.3000(300 m)

USD/JPY: 110.50(561 m), 111.00($515 m), 112.00(807 m), 112.40(493 m), 112.70-80(940 m), 113.00(411 m), 113.24(410 m), 113.60(340 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7800(278 m), 0.7900-05(258 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2600(330 m)

• Would support new countries joining global oil output cut deal

The consumer price index (IPC) increased by 0.2% in September 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.9 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year.

• This moment calls for mediation

• Rajoy's policies have been catastrophic for Catalonia

Australian retail turnover fell 0.6 per cent in August 2017, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. This follows a fall of 0.2 per cent in July 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in food retailing (-0.6 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-1.3 per cent), household goods retailing (-1.0 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.2 per cent). There were rises in department stores (0.7 per cent) and other retailing (0.1 per cent) in August 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in all states and territories. "Victoria (-0.8 per cent) and Queensland (-0.8 per cent) led the falls," said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide surveys.

"There were also falls in New South Wales (-0.2 per cent), Western Australia (-0.6 per cent), South Australia (-0.6 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-0.8 per cent), Tasmania (-0.7 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-0.7 per cent)."

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $735m in August 2017, a decrease of $282m on the surplus in July 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $989m in August 2017, an increase of $181m on the surplus in July 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $166m (1%) to $32,229m. Non-rural goods rose $398m (2%). Non-monetary gold fell $308m (19%) and rural goods fell $31m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $47m. Services credits rose $106m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $15m to $31,240m. Consumption goods fell $306m (4%), capital goods fell $169m (3%) and non-monetary gold fell $9m (2%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $386m (4%). Services debits rose $84m (1%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1865 (2953)

$1.1836 (3078)

$1.1814 (663)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1749

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1696 (4166)

$1.1648 (4037)

$1.1599 (4338)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 109801 contracts (according to data from October, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (7079);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3404 (1476)

$1.3361 (1605)

$1.3302 (1948)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3228

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3145 (3341)

$1.3098 (1535)

$1.3049 (1397)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 37437 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (3027);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 43747 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (3341);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.