Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 04-10-2017.

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M August 0% 0.3%

00:30 Australia Trade Balance August 0.46 875

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) September 0.0% 0.2%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) September 0.5% 0.6%

08:30 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

11:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions August -3.04 -2.6

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1934 1950

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 272 268

12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln August -43.7 -42.70

13:10 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks

13:15 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Harker Speaks

14:00 U.S. Factory Orders August -3.3% 1%

16:00 United Kingdom MPC Member McCafferty Speaks

17:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks

20:30 U.S. FOMC Member Esther George Speaks

22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index September 55.3

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 465.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased 1.6 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels last week.

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 93rd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report.

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management says:

"The NMI registered 59.8 percent, which is 4.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 55.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. This is the highest reading since August 2005 when the index registered 61.3 percent. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.3 percent, 3.8 percentage points higher than the August reading of 57.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 98th consecutive month, at a faster rate in September.

The New Orders Index registered 63 percent, 5.9 percentage points higher than the reading of 57.1 percent in August. The Employment Index increased 0.6 percentage point in September to 56.8 percent from the August reading of 56.2 percent. The Prices Index increased substantially by 8.4 percentage points from the August reading of 57.9 percent to 66.3 percent, indicating prices increased in September for the fourth consecutive month.

• We have all grounds to believe that situation on global oil markets will soon be balanced

• A genuine economic recovery is underway in Russia

• Hopes mutual interest in fighting terrorism will help improve ties between Russia and USA

• Relations with Trump are not without problems

• Russia condemns N.Korea's actions

• Failure to resolve N.Korean crisis in previous years led to situation today

Private sector employment increased by 135,000 jobs from August to September according to the September ADP National Employment Report.

"In September, small businesses experienced a dip in hiring," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and cohead of the ADP Research Institute.

"This is in part due to Hurricane's Harvey and Irma which significantly impacted smaller retailers. "In addition, the continued slow down we have seen in small business hiring could be due to a lack of competitive compensation to attract skilled talent." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hurt the job market in September. Looking through the storms the job market remains sturdy and strong."

In August 2017 compared with July 2017, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade fell by 0.5% in the euro area (EA19), while it remained stable in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In July, the retail trade volume decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU28.

In August 2017 compared with August 2016, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU28.

September data revealed a continued upturn in business activity across the UK service sector, although the rate of expansion edged up only slightly since August and remained weaker than seen on average in the first half of the year. Relatively subdued domestic demand acted as a drag on activity growth, with the latest rise in incoming new work the slowest for 13 months.

At the same time, service providers remained under pressure from sharply rising operating expenses, which contributed to the fastest rate of prices charged inflation since April.

The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 53.6 in September, up from an 11-month low of 53.2 in August. Looking at Q3 as a whole, growth has eased slightly since the previous quarter (the index averaged 54.3 in Q2, compared to 53.5 in Q3)

The eurozone economy ended the third quarter with a flourish as output growth accelerated to a fourmonth high in September, underpinned by the steepest gain in new work received for almost sixand-a-half years.

At 56.7 in September, up from 55.7 in August, the final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index matched the earlier flash estimate. The outlook also remained bright, with business optimism rising to a four-month high.

The seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index rose for the second month running in September to 55.6, up from 53.5 in August. The latest reading signalled the joint-fastest rate of expansion seen since the end 2015, equalling that recorded in March. Average services growth in the third quarter was slightly down on quarter two, however.

The seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index meanwhile registered its highest reading in almost six-and-a-half years, at 57.7. This reflected not only the stronger increase in services activity, but also a further acceleration of manufacturing output growth to the fastest since early-2011.

Following a loss of momentum midway through the third quarter, activity growth in the French service sector quickened in September. Renewed impetus was underpinned by a marked increase in new orders, which contributed to a sharper rise in employment. Capacity pressures persisted, however, amid a further notable accumulation of unfinished work. As a result, expectations for growth remained high.

The final seasonally adjusted IHS Markit France Composite Output Index - which covers the combined manufacturing and service sectors - posted 57.1 in September, up markedly from 55.2 in August and a 76-month high.

Strong growth of new business fed through to another sharp monthly rise in activity in the Spanish service sector, with rates of expansion in both quickening from August. Rising workloads encouraged companies to increase staffing levels again. Stronger client demand enabled another rise in output prices, with the rate of inflation among the fastest in the past decade. Meanwhile, input costs increased at a weaker pace.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose to 56.7 in September from 56.0 in August, thereby signalling a sharp and accelerated increase in business activity at Spanish services companies. Activity has now risen in each of the past 47 months, with the latest expansion linked by panellists to improving market conditions and rising customer numbers.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1867 (2536)

$1.1835 (2839)

$1.1803 (640)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1767

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1732 (5067)

$1.1693 (4055)

$1.1648 (4482)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 109710 contracts (according to data from October, 3) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (7113);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3408 (1568)

$1.3367 (1627)

$1.3308 (1948)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3268

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3216 (879)

$1.3181 (1727)

$1.3141 (3426)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 37209 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (3027);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 42914 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (3426);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 3

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The Australian Industry Group Performance of Services Index fell 0.9 points to 52.1 in September (seasonally adjusted), signalling a marginal slowing in growth from August. Australian PSI results above 50 points indicate expansion, with higher numbers indicating stronger rates of growth.

All five of the activity sub-indexes in the Australian PSI were above 50 points and indicating growth in September (seasonally adjusted), but four of them grew at a slower pace than in August. Sales (52.9 points), new orders (51.9) and employment (51.4) growth moderated while stocks (inventory) (51.8) built up at a slower rate. Supplier deliveries (52.6) returned to expansion.

Capacity utilisation fell to 77.1% of available capacity being utilised across the services sector in September.