Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 04-06-2018.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $4.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $248.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 2.7 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $5.6 billion or 6.1 percent to $87.1 billion.

"As has been stated by numerous legal scholars, I have the absolute right to PARDON myself, but why would I do that when I have done nothing wrong? In the meantime, the never ending Witch Hunt, led by 13 very Angry and Conflicted Democrats (& others) continues into the mid-terms!."

In April 2018, compared with March 2018, industrial producer prices remained stable in the euro area (EA19), while they rose by 0.1% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In March 2018, prices increased by 0.1% in both zones. In April 2018, compared with April 2017, industrial producer prices rose by 2.0% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU28.

Industrial producer prices in total industry remained stable in the euro area in April 2018, compared with March 2018, as prices increased by 0.2% for intermediate goods and by 0.1% for capital goods and durable consumer goods, while they remained stable for non-durable consumer goods and decreased by 0.4% in the energy sector. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 0.1%.

The sentix economic expectations literally collapse in June. At -13.3 points, expectations are at their lowest level since August 2012! The overall index also falls significantly.

The current economic engine in Europe, the German economy, is also under pressure. For the fifth time in a row, the overall index for Germany has fallen to its lowest level since July 2016.

Internationally, the US economy is proving relatively robust, although the negative expectations of investors here also signal that the USA should not overstretch the curve. The Asia ex Japan region remains a source of hope for the global economy, where only positive expectations can be measured.

Latest PMI data signalled only a modest improvement in UK construction activity midway through the second quarter, with the pace of expansion matching that registered in April. Commercial activity growth accelerated to a threemonth high in May; however, softer expansions in both residential and civil engineering activity were recorded. Furthermore, new order books contracted for the fourth time in the past five months amid general uncertainty in the sector.

At 52.5 in May, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained unchanged since April. The figure was indicative of a moderate increase in total activity, albeit one that was subdued in the context of historical data.

The financial situation of firms further improved, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous survey round. From October 2017 to March 2018, the percentage of euro area SMEs reporting a higher turnover decreased (24%, down from 27%). The moderation in turnover was also reflected in profits, as 4% of euro area SMEs reported increases, down from 5%, in a context of growing labour costs (50%, up from 49%) and other production costs (54%, up from 48%).

The number of unemployed registered in the offices of the Public Employment Services has decreased in May by 83,738 people in relation to the previous month. In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment has also fallen, in 3,236 people. With respect to May 2017, unemployment has reduced 208,998 people, which puts its year-on-year reduction level at 6.04%. Thus, the total number of unemployed registered is 3,252,130, the lowest since December 2008. This means that since the maximum recorded in February 2013, unemployment has been reduced by 1,788,092 people.

"The United States must, at long last, be treated fairly on Trade. If we charge a country ZERO to sell their goods, and they charge us 25, 50 or even 100 percent to sell ours, it is UNFAIR and can no longer be tolerated. That is not Free or Fair Trade, it is Stupid Trade!"

Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in April 2018, seasonally adjusted, with cafes, restaurants and takeaways leading the rise assisted by an unusually warm April across much of Australia, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

This follows a relatively unchanged result (0.0 per cent) in March 2018.

"Cafes, restaurants and takeaways (1.3 per cent) led the rises" said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, "whilst there were also rises in other retailing (0.9 per cent), food retailing (0.3 per cent) and household goods retailing (0.7 per cent). The rises were partially offset by falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessories (-0.8 per cent) and department stores (-0.9 per cent)."

"While industries including Cafes, restaurants and takeaways can benefit from warm weather, there were likely negative impacts for some businesses in clothing, footwear and personal accessories and department stores."

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in New South Wales (0.7 per cent), Victoria (0.3 per cent), Western Australia (0.7 per cent), Queensland (0.1 per cent), the Northern Territory (2.6 per cent), Tasmania (0.9 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.6 per cent). South Australia (-0.6 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms.

• G7 Members Issue Closing Communique Condemning U.S. Trade Actions

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1808 (2698)

$1.1768 (2803)

$1.1735 (3446)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1690

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1614 (3036)

$1.1579 (4702)

$1.1538 (2497)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 8 is 166609 contracts (according to data from June, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (6257);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3467 (1397)

$1.3431 (620)

$1.3402 (291)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3368

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3302 (1682)

$1.3272 (1300)

$1.3235 (1025)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 8 is 39494 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (2292);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 8 is 41557 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (2260);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 1.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.