Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 03-10-2017.

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1736 +0,03%

GBP/USD $1,3236 -0,30%

USD/CHF Chf0,97369 -0,07%

USD/JPY Y112,88 +0,15%

EUR/JPY Y132,48 +0,18%

GBP/JPY Y149,401 -0,15%

AUD/USD $0,7833 +0,02%

NZD/USD $0,7153 -0,57%

USD/CAD C$1,2488 -0,17%

00:00 China Bank holiday

07:50 France Services PMI (Finally) September 54.9 57.1

07:55 Germany Services PMI (Finally) September 53.5 55.6

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) September 54.7 55.6

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services September 53.2 53.2

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) August 2.6% 2.6%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) August -0.3% 0.3%

12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report September 237 130

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Finally) September 56 55.1

14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing September 55.3 55.5

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories September -1.846 -0.756

16:15 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

19:00 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

19:15 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

• There is a determined exercise underway in whitehall devoted to contingency arrangements on Brexit

• Repeal bill is essential and we will not allow it to be wrecked

• A 'no deal' scenario is not what we seek

• "Almost time" on removing qualitative test from stress testing for large banks

• Regulators have "significant flexibility" in refining volcker rule even for larger firms

EUR/USD: 1.1700(444 млн), 1.1750-55(761 млн), 1.1770-75(2.32 млрд), 1.1800(897 млн), 1.1850(581 млн), 1.1880-85(752 млн)

GBP/USD: 1.3125(381 млн), 1.3400(257 млн)

USD/JPY: 110.25(930 млн), 111.00(389 млн), 112.00(487 млн), 114.00(400 млн)

USD/CHF: 0.9715(225 млн)

AUD/USD: 0.7600(510 млн), 0.7675(367 млн), 0.7750(457 млн), 0.7850(407 млн), 0.7900(374 млн)

NZD/USD: 0.7100(396 млн), 0.7150(234 млн), 0.7450(279 млн)

• Narrows symmetrical corridor of interest rates on its standing facilities to +/- 1.25pct from 1.5 pct around the policy rate

• Russia, OPEC to discuss global oil cut deal implementation

• Plans to hold bilateral meetings with some OPEC ministers

• FPC sees slightly higher risk than previously thought of Brexit disruption to wholesale UK banking services

• Prudential regulation authority engaging with EU banks about contingency planning for bank branches in UK

• EU bank branches account for one tenth of lending to UK companies

• FPC view in march 2017 was that reliance on Libor as benchmark created financial stability risk

September data revealed a difficult month for the UK construction sector, as a sustained drop in new work led to the first reduction in overall business activity since August 2016. Survey respondents attributed the drop in workloads to fragile confidence and subdued risk appetite among clients, especially in the commercial building sector.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index registered 48.1 in September, down from 51.1 in August and below the crucial 50.0 no-change threshold for the first time in 13 months. The latest reading signalled the fastest decline in overall construction output since July 2016.

In August 2017, compared with July 2017, industrial producer prices rose by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.4% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In July 2017, prices remained stable in the euro area and increased by 0.1% in the EU28. In August 2017, compared with August 2016, industrial producer prices rose by 2.5% in the euro area and by 2.9% in the EU28.

The 0.3% increase in industrial producer prices in total industry in the euro area in August 2017, compared with July 2017, is due to rises of 0.7% in the energy sector, of 0.2% for intermediate goods and of 0.1% for both durable and non-durable consumer goods, while prices remained stable for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 0.1%.

EUR/USD: 1.1700(444 m), 1.1750-55(761 m), 1.1770-75(2.32 b), 1.1800(897 m), 1.1850(581 m), 1.1880-85(752 m)

GBP/USD: 1.3125(381 m), 1.3400(257 m)

USD/JPY: 110.25(930 m), 111.00(389 m), 112.00(487 m), 114.00(400 m)

USD/CHF: 0.9715(225 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7600(510 m), 0.7675(367 m), 0.7750(457 m), 0.7850(407 m), 0.7900(374 m)

NZD/USD: 0.7100(396 m), 0.7150(234 m), 0.7450(279 m)

The number of unemployed registered in the offices of the Public Employment Service (SEPE) has risen in September by 27,858 people in relation to the previous month. In the last 8 years this month registered unemployment had increased by almost 50,000 people (49,764).

Thus, the total number of registered unemployed stands at 3,410,182. It remains at its lowest level in the last 8 years. In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment declines again and it does so in 16,451 people. In the last 12 months, unemployment has decreased by 310,115 people, with a month-on-month increase of 8.34% in unemployment.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1867 (1482)

$1.1835 (2614)

$1.1792 (497)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1716

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1646 (3519)

$1.1598 (3588)

$1.1549 (1728)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 106506 contracts (according to data from October, 2) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (6852);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3421 (1524)

$1.3360 (2485)

$1.3323 (1768)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3259

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3185 (1657)

$1.3142 (3086)

$1.3096 (1549)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 36160 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (3027);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 42001 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (3086);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 2

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Growth expected to pick up gradually over the coming years

• Expects gradual increase in underlying inflation

• House prices rising briskly in some markets

• Slow growth in wages, high household debt likely to constrain growth and spending

• Says signs conditions are easing in Sydney house prices

• Employment has been stronger over recent months, forward looking indicators strong

• Australia's terms of trade expected to decline but remain high

• Broader implications for the US and China would be relatively limited

• With Vietnam, loss of exports to South Korea and supply chain disruptions would weaken their credit profile

• If conflict led to sustained capital flows away from higher-risk emerging markets,liquidity risk would increase

The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 1.1% in August and has risen for seven months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.4% in August following a fall of 1.2% in the previous month.

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved rose 0.9% in August and has risen for six months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 0.6% in August after rising for three months.

The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 1.3% in August and has risen for three months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 4.8% in August following a fall of 6.6% in the previous month.

"Conditions in the global economy have improved. Labour markets have tightened and above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. Growth in the Chinese economy is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Australia's terms of trade are expected to decline in the period ahead but remain at relatively high levels.

Wage growth remains low in most countries, as does core inflation. Headline inflation rates are generally lower than at the start of the year, largely reflecting the earlier decline in oil prices. In the United States, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it will begin the process of balance sheet normalisation in October and that it expects to increase interest rates further. In the other major economies, there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and volatility remains low.

The Australian economy expanded by 0.8 per cent in the June quarter. This outcome and other recent data are consistent with the Bank's expectation that growth in the Australian economy will gradually pick up over the coming year.

Over recent months there have been more consistent signs that non-mining business investment is picking up. A consolidation of this trend would be a welcome development. Business conditions as reported in surveys are at a high level and capacity utilisation has risen. A large pipeline of infrastructure investment is also supporting the outlook. Against this, slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt are likely to constrain growth in household spending".