(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1656 +0,29%
GBP/USD $1,3057 -1,47%
USD/CHF Chf0,99921 -0,35%
USD/JPY Y114,07 -0,04%
EUR/JPY Y132,96 +0,24%
GBP/JPY Y148,947 -1,51%
AUD/USD $0,7713 +0,49%
NZD/USD $0,6912 +0,34%
USD/CAD C$1,28108 -0,39%
01:30 Australia AIG Services Index October 52.1 51.4
03:00 Japan Bank holiday
03:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M September -0.6% 0.4%
04:45 China Markit/Caixin Services PMI October 50.6 50.8
12:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services October 53.6 53.3
15:30 Canada Trade balance, billions September -3.41 -3
15:30 Canada Unemployment rate October 6.2% 6.2%
15:30 Canada Employment October 10 15
15:30 U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls October -1 15.0
15:30 U.S. Government Payrolls October 7
15:30 U.S. Average workweek October 34.4 34.4
15:30 U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls October -40 303
15:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings October 0.5% 0.2%
15:30 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate October 63.1%
15:30 U.S. International Trade, bln September -42.4 -43.2
15:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls October -33 310
15:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate October 4.2% 4.2%
16:45 U.S. Services PMI (Finally) October 55.3 55.9
17:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing October 59.8 58.5
17:00 U.S. Factory Orders September 1.2% 1.3%
19:15 U.S. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
20:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count November 737
23:15 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks
EURUSD: 1.1580 (EUR 820m) 1.1600 (1.32bln) 1.1605-10 (1.03bln) 1.1650 (1.52bln) 1.1670 (780m) 1.1700-05 (1.3bln) 1.1850 (560m)
USDJPY: 112.50 (USD 450m) 113.00 (735m) 114.00 (1.4bln)
GBPUSD: 1.3055-60 (GBP 430m)
AUDUSD: 0.7700(AUD 1,5bln) 0.7725 (520m)
In the week ending October 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 233,000 to 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 232,500, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 7, 1973 when it was 232,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 239,500 to 239,750.
It isn't where inflation is now, but where it's going that concerns us
Time has come to ease our foot off the accelerator
Domestic inflationary pressures are likely to build
Interest rate are one of many influences on exchange rate and other asset prices
Households are generally well positioned for a rate rise
Sheer novelty of first increase in bank rate creates some uncertainty about impact, but no reason to expect it to be larger than normal
Market interest rate assumption based on bank rate at 0.7 pct in q3 2018, 0.9 pct in q4 2019, 1.0 pct in q3 2020
Economic outlook "Broadly similar" to august, "considerable risks" remain, including around brexit
Boe forecast shows inflation in two years' time at 2.21 pct (aug forecast 2.19 pct), based on market interest rates
Shows inflation in one year's time at 2.37 pct (aug forecast 2.58 pct), based on market interest rates
Unemployment rate at 4.2 pct in two years' time (aug 4.5 pct), based on market rates
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 1 November 2017, the MPC voted by a majority of 7-2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.5%. The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.
UK construction companies signalled that business conditions remained subdued during October. Output growth was largely confined to house building, which partly offset lower volumes of civil engineering and commercial activity. Moreover, the balance of construction firms expecting an increase in business activity over the next 12 months eased to its weakest since December 2012. Caution in terms of the outlook for construction workloads meant that employment numbers increased at one of the slowest rates seen over the past four years.
At 50.8 in October, up from 48.1 in September, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index moved back above the 50.0 no-change mark. However, the latest reading was weaker than the post-crisis trend (54.7) and signalled only a marginal rise in overall construction output.
The eurozone manufacturing sector started the final quarter on a strong footing. Growth of both output and new orders remained elevated, while the pace of job creation accelerated to a survey-record high.
The final IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to an 80-month high of 58.5 in October, up from 58.1 in September and slightly below the earlier flash estimate of 58.6. The headline PMI has signalled expansion in each month since July 2013.
Germany's manufacturing sector continued to grow strongly at the start of the fourth quarter, according to the latest PMI survey data from IHS Markit and BME. Production and new orders rose sharply in October, and goods producers upped the rate of job creation to the fastest since April 2011 in order to support the higher level of activity. Supply chain pressures further intensified, however, with the incidence of delivery delays among the most widespread on record and manufacturers facing sharply rising purchase prices.
October's PMI reading was 60.6, unchanged on September's 77-month high. The intermediate and investment goods sectors were again the best performers, with the consumer goods category continuing to lag behind.
The Spanish manufacturing sector gained further growth momentum during October, with sharp and accelerated rises in output, new orders and employment recorded. Firms responded to higher workloads by increasing purchasing activity, in turn leading to one of the fastest rises in input stocks in the survey's history. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures gathered pace amid reports of raw material shortages. This also contributed to longer suppliers' delivery times.
The PMI increased to 55.8 in October, up from 54.3 in September and the highest reading since May 2015. In fact, the rate of improvement in the health of the sector was the joint-fastest since the financial crisis.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1801 (3905)
$1.1754 (2441)
$1.1712 (2739)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1652
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1587 (5991)
$1.1545 (3729)
$1.1498 (3817)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 3 is 120174 contracts (according to data from November, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (10004);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3338 (3442)
$1.3313 (1022)
$1.3294 (4287)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3261
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3228 (2173)
$1.3203 (975)
$1.3172 (2744)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 3 is 45723 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (4287);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 3 is 39578 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (3228);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.87 versus 0.84 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 1
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
At -2 points, the overall index is virtually unchanged in October compared to the previous quarter (-3 points). Continued optimism regarding economic development and unemployment are supporting the positive outlook in particular, while expectations regarding the financial situation of households remain below average. This indicates that consumers' perceptions have barely changed since the July survey, although there has been a significant increase in anticipated price trends.
Total dwelling units:
The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 1.8% in september and has risen for eight months.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 1.5% in september and has risen for two months.
Value of building approved:
The trend estimate of the value of total building approved rose 1.3% in september and has risen for nine months. The value of residential building rose 1.5% and has risen for five months. The value of non-residential building rose 1.0% and has risen for eight months.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 8.3% in september after falling for two months. The value of residential building rose 0.1% and has risen for two months. The value of non-residential building rose 22.4% following a fall of 10.9% in the previous month.
Balance on goods and services:
In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,061m in september 2017, an increase of $6m on the surplus in august 2017.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,745m in september 2017, an increase of $872m on the surplus in august 2017.
Credits (exports of goods and services):
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $924m (3%) to $32,961m. Non-rural goods rose $599m (3%), non-monetary gold rose $217m (17%), rural goods rose $5m and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (2%). Services credits rose $102m (1%).
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