Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 02-05-2018.

At 436.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.4 million barrels last week.

U.S private sector employment increased by 204,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP National Employment Report.

"The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "However, as the labor pool tightens it will become increasingly difficult for employers to find skilled talent. Job gains in the highskilled professional and business services industry accounted for more than half of all jobs added this month. The construction industry, which also relies on skilled labor, continued its six month trend of steady job gains as well." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month. At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat."

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.5% in March 2018, stable compared with February 2018 and down from 9.4% in March 2017. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since December 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 7.1% in March 2018, stable compared with February 2018 and down from 7.9% in March 2017. This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since September 2008.

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA19) and in the EU28 during the first quarter of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the fourth quarter of 2017, GDP had grown by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU28. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.5% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU28 in the first quarter of 2018, after +2.8% and +2.7% respectively in the previous quarter.

April data indicated a moderate recovery in construction output following the weather-related disruptions seen during March. House building was the main category of activity to experience robust growth in April. However, there were signs that underlying demand across the construction sector remained subdued, with total new work rising only marginally in April. The increase in new business was the first recorded by the survey so far in 2018.

At 52.5 in April, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index picked up sharply from the 20-month low seen in March (47.0). The latest reading was the highest since November 2017 and signalled a moderate expansion of overall construction output.

The start of the second quarter saw a further slowing in the rate of growth in the eurozone manufacturing sector. The final IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to a 13-month low of 56.2 in April, down from 56.6 in March and slightly above the earlier flash estimate of 56.0. Although still signalling a solid rate of expansion, the upturn has lost noticeable momentum since the PMI hit a record high in December 2017.

Germany's manufacturing sector made a solid start to the second quarter, with output rising markedly and at a quicker pace than in March. However, the rate of production growth remained well below the highs seen at the turn of the year, and both new order inflows and job creation continued to wane from their recent elevated levels.

The headline IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI - a single-figure snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy - dipped to 58.1 in April, down fractionally from 58.2 in March and its lowest reading for nine months.

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Although output rose at a slightly quicker rate, new order growth slowed amid a renewed fall in new export work. Consequently, purchasing activity rose only modestly, while firms noted higher inventories of both inputs and finished items.

The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index registered 51.1 in April, up fractionally from 51.0 in March. Operating conditions have now strengthened in each of the past 11 months, though the pace of improvement was only marginal.

Although the rate of expansion in output regained some ground, slower increases were seen in new orders and employment. That said, the sector continued to maintain solid growth during the month.

There were also signs of softening inflationary pressures, with both input costs and output prices rising at weaker rates. The headline IHS Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI posted 54.4 in April, thereby signalling a solid improvement in the health of the sector. That said, down from 54.8 in March, the PMI signalled a weaker strengthening of business conditions, and one that was the slowest since September 2017.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2121 (1546)

$1.2090 (1158)

$1.2068 (637)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2006

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1932 (3115)

$1.1890 (1045)

$1.1845 (2559)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 96853 contracts (according to data from May, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (5108);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3808 (244)

$1.3765 (922)

$1.3699 (1439)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3611

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3532 (685)

$1.3490 (438)

$1.3445 (211)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 25295 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3253);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 27708 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (2234);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.13 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 1.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.