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20.02.2020, 12:52

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Incoming data pointed to continued positive but modest GDP growth

The ECB released account of its January 22-23 monetary policy meeting. It noted that:

  • while there might have been a bottoming-out in manufacturing, it was too soon to conclude that the slowdown in growth in the services sector had stopped, as spillovers to services could emerge with a lag and the sector's current resilience might not last;
  • nowcasting models, which took recent data releases into account, pointed to a stabilisation in growth at low rates, below estimates of potential growth;
  • members were encouraged by the fact that headline and underlying inflation had recently evolved in line with the December staff projections and by the evidence of a continued gradual upward trend in some indicators of underlying inflation;
  • reference was made to developments in a number of euro area indicators; it was felt to be important to acknowledge these positive signs and care should be taken to avoid being too slow to change the risk assessment;
  • some caution was also expressed about becoming too optimistic;
  • remark was also made that higher housing prices could lead to fragilities in the financial system which might be insufficiently addressed by macroprudential policies.

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