Market news
03.02.2020, 08:15

US: Low risks of a technical recession in 2020 – UOB

FXStreet reports that senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew noted the US economy faces diminished risks of entering into a technical recession during the current year.

"The US released its prelim 4Q GDP growth which came in at 2.1% q/q SAAR in 3Q (the same pace of expansion in 3Q but slightly better than Bloomberg median estimate) thanks to a surprisingly strong contribution from net exports, continued improvement in residential investment & government spending. And while consumer spending remained positive, its 4Q growth was a marked slowdown from the preceding two quarters."

"The main drags on GDP continued to be a slump in business investments and a bigger extraction from private inventories."

"For the full year, the US economy grew by 2.3% in 2019, slower than the 2.9% recorded in 2018 and further away from the 3% growth pledged by US President Trump."

"Taking stock of several key factors (including faltering consumer spending, trade uncertainties continuing to hamper business investments, constrained housing growth and the latest coronavirus uncertainty), we expect US growth to slow further to 1.5% in 2020 (from 2.3% in 2019 and below the US potential growth of 2.0%)."

"We factor in a negative quarter in 1Q 2020 (-0.4% q/q SAAR), but the subsequent quarters will resume q/q growth. This implies we see a lower risk of a technical recession (i.e. 2 consecutive quarters of sequential q/q declines) in 2020 but have not ruled it out. It is important to remember that we are still in the midst of the longest US economic expansion on record (128 months as of Jan 2020) and even if we do get a technical recession in 2020, it will likely be mild."

© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.

This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

AML Website Summary

Risk Disclosure

Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.

Privacy Policy

Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.

Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.

Bank
transfers
Feedback
Live Chat E-mail
Up
Choose your language / location