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- CNY should be volatile in 2020 - ING
CNY should be volatile in 2020 - ING
Iris Pang, the economist for Greater China at ING, notes the yuan, USD/CNY, has been volatile in 2019, ranging between 6.67 in March and 7.18 in September.
- "This has reflected developments in trade negotiations, rather than the relative monetary policies of China and the US.
- We believe the yuan will continue to see volatile trading in 2020 because there is still a lot of uncertainty about the phase one trade deal, which has yet to be signed. And even if it is signed, there are still a number of tariffs imposed on China that will not be rolled back. (The media has reported that the rollback of tariffs may only be 7.5% on some Chinese goods). The market's focus could also soon shift to a phase two deal, and whether such an agreement is even likely as the US presidential election approaches in November.
- In addition to the trade war, there is an emerging technology war against Chinese technology brands operating in the US and Europe, which will add extra pressure to the Chinese economy.
- The high degree of uncertainty here suggests the yuan will remain volatile this year. This makes our year-end forecast for 2020 of 6.85 per dollar less valuable than would otherwise be the case."
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