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19.07.2019 14:37

ECB to use July meeting to steer towards a rate cut in September - Rabobank

Rabobank analysts think that the ECB’s Governing Council will use the July meeting to steer towards a rate cut in September.

  1. “Policy rates:
  • We expect forward guidance to be updated to signal a rate cut, e.g. “The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels [...]”
  • We think that this would herald a 10bp rate cut in September. Additionally, we see 3 follow-up cuts in the coming 12 months.
  • Draghi signaled that further rate cuts would be accompanied by some form of mitigating factors. We believe a tiered deposit rate is the most feasible solution.
2. Asset Purchase Program:
  • We don’t expect changes to the reinvestment program or its forward guidance, nor do we anticipate the ECB to restart net asset purchases at this stage.”

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