According to Michael Schumacher, global head of rate strategy and managing director at Wells Fargo Securities, investors may find themselves disappointed by the Fed’s next move.
Many expect the U.S. central bank to slash its benchmark interest rate at the next meeting in late July in response to weakening economic data domestically and around the globe. The CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows traders pricing in a 100% chance of a July cut.
But what the stock market is pricing in with regards to Fed policy might be too aggressive, Schumacher told. “We think they’ll come in and do two moves, so 50 basis points total [worth of cuts]. The market’s priced for something like 65 or 70 basis points,” Schumacher said. “So, in our view, at least at Wells Fargo, we think the Fed is, in some strange way, going to disappoint the market by not [cutting] as much as it already anticipates.”
“Fed Chair Powell wants to cut,” Schumacher said, adding that the constructive U.S. consumer price data didn’t change the view of the chairman.
And, if the Fed decides to go through with a cut, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields could also see some counterintuitive moves, said the strategist, whose year-end target for the 10-year yield is 2.30%.
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