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09.07.2019 13:08

USD longs consolidates, EUR shorts drops - Rabobank

According to IMM net speculators’ positioning as at July 2, 2019, USD longs consolidated having dropped sharply the previous week to their lowest level since July 2018, note analysts at Rabobank.

  • “The USD has recovered some ground in the spot market following the stronger than expected June US Labour Report. This suggests there is scope for a bounce in the next set of positioning data.
  • The level of JPY shorts dropped sharply for a third consecutive week despite news of a truce on US/China trade wars.
  • The level of net EUR short positions dropped again last week to their lowest levels since October 2018.
  • Net short GBP positions increased for a third consecutive week on fears about a no deal Brexit and a weakening UK economic backdrop.
  • CHF net shorts dropped back to their lowest levels since April 2018.
  • CAD net positions popped back into the positive ground for the first time since March 2018 on speculation that policy divergence between the Fed and the BoC could end in the foreseeable future.
  • AUD net shorts dropped back. Hopes are building that the RBA’s pre-emptive rate cuts and looser fiscal policy outlook may be sufficient stimulus for now.”

Market Focus

  • BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October
  • UK retail sales fell slightly in August
  • Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected
  • SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%
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