“We expect payrolls to rebound from the surprisingly weak 75,000 reading in May, we doubt it will be enough to drag the 6M average meaningfully higher. We look for payrolls growth of 170,000. The consensus is 164,000 within a range of expectations of 100,000 to 205,000. Monthly wage growth has been average a little over 0.2%MoM year to date, but we look for a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in June to reflect both the competition for workers, but also the technical point that there were only 20 working days in June versus 23 in May. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% in April and stayed there in May – the lowest level since December 1969. We expect it to remain there again this month but the balance of risks are more to the upside than the downside given slowing employment growth and the outside possibility that higher wage growth may attract some people back to the labour force.”
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