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- Odds of hard Brexit remain high - Rabobank
Odds of hard Brexit remain high - Rabobank
Analysts at Rabobank note the recently held local elections in England and Northern Ireland had expected results and led to a breakthrough in Tory-Labour talks on a desired Brexit outcome.
- There has however been a lack of progress, and talks could even collapse.
- The UK has confirmed it will hold European Parliament (EP) elections on 23 May.
- The government’s new aim is to get the Withdrawal Agreement ratified before the instalment of the new EP on 2 July.
- The pressure on Prime Minister May to resign mounts, but attempts to remove her from her function have failed so far.
- However, the risk of a forced leadership change or a cabinet fall persists and is likely to rise following the EP elections on 23 May, an important milestone in that sense.
- Meanwhile, we still see an orderly Brexit as the most likely outcome, but the slow progress in Tory-Labour talks is concerning.
- A series of parliamentary votes on various Brexit outcomes can be an alternative way forward.
- Given the gridlock on Brexit in British politics the odds of a Hard Brexit remain high.
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